Temple showed it can play with the big boys at least for a little while as they were right there with Louisville the first 20 minutes of the game. Cincinnati just does not have the offensive balance that Louisville has so I believe they should be able to hang with them even longer as the Bearcats have a major issue at QB. I Munchie Legauex is not the QB then there are still major question marks. Legeaux has completed just 52% of his passes this year and Temple is 28th in sack % and is known for getting after the QB and forcing them into mistakes over the past few years.
The Bearcats are also looking ahead to their match up with Rutgers and most likely looking past a Temple team that will be hungry to stay in bowl contention. They will do it with the run from the QB Chris Coyter and their two talented running backs the transfer from BC Montel Harris and the explosive senior Matt Brown. Cincinnati is allowing 4.4 ypc on the road and they are 100th in pass defense so I would look for Temple to throw the ball to keep them on their heels and that should lead to some points. AT the end of the day this is too many points for a road team without an aerial attack going up against an offense that likes to hold onto the ball. Temple is also ranked amongst the nation's best in many special teams categories including returns and punt yards. Cinci has already allowed a TD return and 25.25 yards per return this year. Expect field position to be in the favor of Temple all day.
Virginia looked good off their bye and like they are on a mission as they dominated NC State on the road, a team that beat Florida State earlier this year. Virginia's defense is allowing over 150 yards less than Miami's poor defense. For Virginia this game is simple run the ball and stop the run and they have two capable running backs in Perry Jones and kevin Parks as well as a two QB system that's keeping the balance in Simms and Rocco. Simms and Rocco have been helped big time by the return of WR Tim Smith, and they will be helped by the running game as they face the worst run defense they have faced all year long as Miami is ranked 111th giving up 5.2 ypc and even Virginia Tech rushed for 5.5 ypc on them at home and now they are on the road and this just spells trouble for MIami.
Miami also has been unable to get to the QB to force bad decision or turnovers so I expect for Virginia to keep their momentum from last week when they scored 33 points on the road. On the flip side we get value here because Miami beat Virginia Tech, but if you watched that game you know the Hokies were the better team with the exception of turnovers as they turned the ball over 2 times inside the red zone which changed the entire game. Miami is still very much a bad team and their offense that has carried them is not as good as you may think. They have faced just two defenses that are capable in stopping the pass and the run in Florida State and Notre Dame and they lost both of those games. Virginia has the same capabilities ranked in the top 40 across the board on defense. What's most impressive is their third down defense as Virginia has held opponents to 29% conversions and 21% in conference plays. Miami is holding opponents to 51% on the road. Now their offense has converted 50% ont he road but they went up against third down defenses ranked 122, 112th and 65th. Their defense has also allowed 15 more red zone attempts on the season than Virginia's unit that's been holding opponents to 50% TD%. This is just a game for Miami to fall back down to earth as they are too young and not ready for the ACC Championship game just yet.
Syracuse +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
Louisville has not played well on the road vs. bad teams and now they go up against a Syracuse team that has been very balanced on offense and defense across all major categories. Syracuse has tendency to win against ranked teams in the Carrier Dome and Louisville has just been asking for it the last few weeks.
Syracuse will be playing on senior day and led by senior QB Ryan Nassib who is capable of beating Louisville's defense that has not faced anyone really. Syracuse has had tough games here already facing USC, Northwestern both are in the top 25 in the nation and the Orangemen will look to stay alive for a bowl game.
Louisville's run defense just allowed 255 rush yards and Syracuse who has faced some of the better run defense has been able to keep a balanced attack at home with Jerome Smith and Gulley averaging 4.37 ypc despite facing two top 30 run defenses. Louisville is 50th against the run and could have issues facing a physical running back. On the flip side Syracuse is capable of stopping Louisville's 71st ranked rushing attack. They held Northwestern to 3.10 ypc which was their lowest all season by over a yard. They held both Pittsburgh and Uconn to under 1 ypc.
At the end of the day Louisville is getting too much credit they have faced poor competition especially on the road and their defense is not nearly as impressive in key categories as Syracuse especially on third down as Syracuse is 32% to Lousiville's 41.6% on the road as Syracuse is among the nations leaders in tackles for loss with 67, while Louisville has just 42. Look for Syracuse offense that has struggled at times in the red zone to get it done on Saturday as Louisville's defense has allowed an 80% TD percentage on the road while Louisville's red zone offense has been excellent it's faced an average rz defense allowing 70% touch downs and Syracuse is only allowing 50% at home.
At the end of the day going into the Carrier Dome is no easy task especially for a Louisville team that starts mostly under classmen led by Terry Bridgewater who is not close to being the same on the road completing just 59% of his passes. On Saturday for the first time this year he won't' be the best QB on the field as Nassib has been great completing 65% of his throws for 9 TD and just 2 interceptions and he goes up against a Louisville pass defense that has allowed 68% completion percentage in road games this year.
